"If there were no minds, there would be no ideas, yes."
Ok, is it an 'idea' that a triangle has only three sides? If there were no minds, would there be no triangles?
"It's right there, straightforward and concise, under the section titled "The Creation of The World." It would be tough to make it plainer."
Right. So God creates by speaking things into existence. Do we have any analogs to human creation that is similar to creation by speaking?
"I don't."
Really? That's all you have?
"If you can't be mentally flexible enough to understand metaphysical naturalism as I mean it then we'll keep the concept and change the term to one without baggage."
How do you know that Searle doesn't understand it as you understand it? Granted, I'm no Searle expert, but he seems to understand PN just fine, he just isn't a reductionist. If I were you, since you are apparently putting so much weight on this as your falsification criteria, upon finding out that there is a fellow PNer of stature who is not a reductionist, I'd go out of my way to check into it. Especially if that was my primary falsification criteria.
I'd feel a similar urge if I came across a Christian of repute who didn't think that finding Jesus' dead body falsified Christianity. Btw, good luck finding one.
"Sure. Actually, there is a guy over at iidb who apparently has run into this too many times and who now calls himself an ideatheist. Instead of saying he doesn't think God is real, he says God is only an idea."
An idea, a fiction. But in a sense real. He should call himself an ideagnostic, with God being in the same category as the multiverse. Something that may or may not be and we may or may not ever know.
Still, back to the point. It isn't merely 'proving a negative.' What we want to do is explore the contingent nature of these ideas as they relate to the ones thinking about them.
"Talking about the 'existence' of ideas makes my head hurt. But, roughly, I think I agree with what you are saying."
I think you're doing fine. Let's keep on it. If someone thinking of an idea is what gives the idea its reality, we say it is contingent. However, under your reductionist view, all mental states eventually reduce somehow to some physical state. Shouldn't you actually be saying that ideas are as real as we are, being composed of matter, represented in the physical mental state that manifests the idea? That seems to me a logical extension of your view as I understand it, but I would like to also suggest that this in itself, even if true, wouldn't avoid the question I'm probing.
Namely, it might be that there are triangles without minds to comprehend them because there are three sided things whether we have a concept for them or not, and it might be that the idea of a triangle reduces to some physical state and in its own way is not 'real,' but somewhere there must exist a place to judge that a three sided figure and a four sided figure cannot
both be called a triangle. If this logical fact reduces merely to a physical state just as the concept of 'triangle' does, then we can in turn reduce that 'logical fact' to a mere physical state, and nothing more.
In other words, it may be that the concept of 'triangle' is contingent on a mind, and it may be that this concept is nothing more than matter, but if the judgment that a four sided figure cannot be called a triangle is also contingent, then it can truly be said that when someone is not thinking about it, it is not in fact true. As a reality, it does not exist. It exists only insofar as someone is considering it.
Or... we can agree that this judgment itself is non-contingent. It exists and is real and true whether we think it or not. And that begs the question of where this 'judgment' resides, if not merely as a product of the mind.
"You couldn't. Similarly, you could not demonstrate that 50,000 revolutions ago gravity kept the moon in the same orbit we think it did."
Well, you couldn't using 'empirical' in the sense of methodology, at least. Set aside walking on water, or the past orbit of the moon. What if the claim was "Washington cut down the cherry tree"? Can this be empirically verified or refuted? If not, does that mean that we are helpless?
"I'm also assuming that we are talking about the hypothetical where Jesus actually walks on water, not where I observe him walk on water and am unsure if it was sleight of hand or not."
That is correct.
""No, you would probably want to see other people walking on the water, habitually, over time, etc. Only after it seems as though everyone can do it would you think it is a natural law. But then, Jesus' walking on the water is no longer a good reason to think there was something special, right?""
"?"
If everyone can walk on a road, you would think that no one was particularly special just because they could walk on the road. If a person said "Hey, I'm God, look at me, I can walk on a road" you wouldn't believe him, right, because who can walk on roads? heh oh, wait a minute. Everyone can walk on roads! You wouldn't believe him even though he walked on a road because it is in fact something that anyone can do! Similarly, if it were the case that everyone could walk on the water, a person who claimed to be 'special' who walked on the water would be dismissed. It is only because walking on the water is impossible for the rest of us that it is capable of being a convincing demonstration for someone claiming to be 'something special.'
In other words, the empirical methodology that you're hanging your hat on is actually something that Christians readily endorse, because it is helpful to know that people don't walk on water, bread doesn't multiply out of nothing, and people don't typically rise from the dead in order to establish the credentials of an entity that claims they are 'something special.'
But in the same way, the mere fact that these things are known does not necessarily preclude the possibility of them being violated, either. In fact, it is only insofar as there is a pattern that you can recognize the exception to it.
"If Jesus really had an ability to walk on water at will, I fail to see why that interaction cannot be phrased as a law."
If only Jesus had this ability, I think you'd find it quite difficult to phrase it as a law. Most people understand a natural law to be the repeated confirmations of similar observations, etc. A 'law' is merely a construct, an agreed upon 'idea.' And ideas are contingent.

"The generalities that we thought of as natural laws about gravity or water or whatever would become rules of thumb applicable in most situations (situations where Jesus / God / whatever did not intervene.)"
Perhaps you could contort the observation in order to frame it as a law, despite the singularity of the event, but I fail to see why that would be beneficial in this case. What I'm driving at is that God as Christians understand him is the one that authored the entire natural order. We state that he dictated what those laws are and he is not beholden to them. A metaphysical naturalism that argues that there is not likely a God because empirical observations prove he doesn't exist is in our mind a flat out contradiction in terms.
For this reason, metaphysical naturalism as you've been explaining it is not a suitable alternative to Christian theism, being a question of apples and oranges.
"Hello is always a nice introduction. Make an appearance, communicate, etc."
But through the medium of our senses, right? What other ways
besides that medium do you propose?
"Well, you tell me, because you're confusing me. How is your conception of God different than a natural law ? I always considered 'God' to be a sentient being. Natural laws are not."
I believe I expanded on this more above, so I'll just refer back to that for now.